SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1102 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021

Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Thunderstorms are possible across southeast Georgia and Florida
Peninsula Monday, as well as the immediate North Carolina coast
Monday afternoon/evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected.

...Synopsis...
Broad upper troughing is expected to be in place across the central
and eastern CONUS early Monday morning, accompanied by moderate to
strong southwesterly flow aloft and an occluded surface low over
Lower MI. This upper troughing is forecast to advance eastward
throughout the day, with a more progressive embedded shortwave
trough over the OH Valley contributing to more eastward progress
than areas farther south, where the embedded shortwave will be
slower. Even so, this upper trough is not expected to truly
bifurcate and will likely be entirely off the East Coast by early
Tuesday morning. 

Surface low attendant to this system will begin the period occluded
over Lower MI and is expected to further occlude throughout the day.
Secondary surface cyclogenesis will likely occur off the
Mid-Atlantic coast as associated cold front moves
eastward/southeastward through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. 

Another weak surface low may develop over the FL Panhandle Monday
afternoon, at the intersection of the better low-level moisture
return and the cold front. This low is then forecast to move
northeastward across southeast GA and off the GA Coast. A corridor
of relatively stronger forcing for ascent will accompany this low,
but the more favorable low-level moisture will be displaced farther
south across the FL Peninsula. Additionally, abundant cloud cover
will limit heating, contributing to substantial low-level stability.
Farther south across the FL Peninsula, warm temperatures aloft and
displacement from the better forcing for ascent will limit deep
updrafts. However, a few storms may be deep/persistent enough to
produce a few lightning flashes.

..Mosier.. 02/21/2021

Read more
There’s more click here.

Comments are closed.