SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 AM CST Sun Feb 21 2021 Valid 221200Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible across southeast Georgia and Florida Peninsula Monday, as well as the immediate North Carolina coast Monday afternoon/evening. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. ...Synopsis... Broad upper troughing is expected to be in place across the central and eastern CONUS early Monday morning, accompanied by moderate to strong southwesterly flow aloft and an occluded surface low over Lower MI. This upper troughing is forecast to advance eastward throughout the day, with a more progressive embedded shortwave trough over the OH Valley contributing to more eastward progress than areas farther south, where the embedded shortwave will be slower. Even so, this upper trough is not expected to truly bifurcate and will likely be entirely off the East Coast by early Tuesday morning. Surface low attendant to this system will begin the period occluded over Lower MI and is expected to further occlude throughout the day. Secondary surface cyclogenesis will likely occur off the Mid-Atlantic coast as associated cold front moves eastward/southeastward through the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic. Another weak surface low may develop over the FL Panhandle Monday afternoon, at the intersection of the better low-level moisture return and the cold front. This low is then forecast to move northeastward across southeast GA and off the GA Coast. A corridor of relatively stronger forcing for ascent will accompany this low, but the more favorable low-level moisture will be displaced farther south across the FL Peninsula. Additionally, abundant cloud cover will limit heating, contributing to substantial low-level stability. Farther south across the FL Peninsula, warm temperatures aloft and displacement from the better forcing for ascent will limit deep updrafts. However, a few storms may be deep/persistent enough to produce a few lightning flashes. ..Mosier.. 02/21/2021
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