SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1140 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies this afternoon and evening. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northwest U.S through the period, with an embedded mid-level impulse expected to pivot around the cyclonic flow and traverse the Pacific Northwest during the late afternoon and evening hours. While temperatures are expected to be sub-freezing through the troposphere at locations in higher elevations, lower terrain areas may experience above freezing temperatures at the low levels, allowing for enough charge separation to support at least a few lightning flashes across parts of the Pacific Northwest. Areas farther east into Montana may also see an isolated thunderstorm or two, but coverage appears sparse enough to preclude a general thunder area at this time. In addition, a mid-level trough will be ejecting into the Atlantic while a southward-sagging surface cold front moves across the southern Florida Peninsula, with cooler and drier air ushering in from behind. The surface cold front is expected to undergo frontolysis across the peninsula, with weakening low-level convergence and a lack of greater buoyancy in the -10 to -30C charge-separation layer contributing to negligible thunderstorm chances, though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out. ..Squitieri.. 02/23/2021
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