SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1140 PM CST Mon Feb 22 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms will be possible over a portion of the Pacific
Northwest and northern Rockies this afternoon and evening.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will prevail across the northwest U.S
through the period, with an embedded mid-level impulse expected to
pivot around the cyclonic flow and traverse the Pacific Northwest
during the late afternoon and evening hours. While temperatures are
expected to be sub-freezing through the troposphere at locations in
higher elevations, lower terrain areas may experience above freezing
temperatures at the low levels, allowing for enough charge
separation to support at least a few lightning flashes across parts
of the Pacific Northwest. Areas farther east into Montana may also
see an isolated thunderstorm or two, but coverage appears sparse
enough to preclude a general thunder area at this time. 

In addition, a mid-level trough will be ejecting into the Atlantic
while a southward-sagging surface cold front moves across the
southern Florida Peninsula, with cooler and drier air ushering in
from behind. The surface cold front is expected to undergo
frontolysis across the peninsula, with weakening low-level
convergence and a lack of greater buoyancy in the -10 to -30C
charge-separation layer contributing to negligible thunderstorm
chances, though a lightning flash or two cannot be ruled out.

..Squitieri.. 02/23/2021

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