SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0653 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 Valid 251300Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI... ...SUMMARY... A couple of severe thunderstorms may occur across north-central/northeast Texas through the Ark-La-Tex vicinity tonight, with a couple instances of marginally severe hail and damaging wind gusts possible. ...Synopsis... Broad cyclonic flow aloft will dominate the upper pattern across the CONUS through today. An embedded mid-level trough will traverse the Southern Plains while a second trough aloft impinges on the Pacific Northwest. Across the southern Plains into portions of the Mid-South, a stable boundary layer will be in place to the north of a surface front across south-central/southeast Texas toward the lower Mississippi Valley. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet will develop and increase this evening, leading to elevated moisture transport and increasing thunderstorms, including the possibility of some strong to locally severe storms. Across the northwest U.S., meager buoyancy preceding the approach of a mid-level trough and associated source of ascent may encourage isolated thunderstorm development to the lee of the Cascades. Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and stable conditions will serve to mitigate thunderstorm chances. ...North Texas to lower Mississippi Valley tonight... Initial thunderstorm development is most probable across north-central/northeast Texas by late afternoon/early evening, with scattered thunderstorms becoming more prevalent after sunset as they develop east-northeastward across northern Louisiana, southern Arkansas, and eventually northern/central Mississippi. Focused north of the surface reflection of the front, this development will be related to increasing warm/moist advection and DPVA as the southern-stream shortwave trough reaches southern Oklahoma and west/northern Texas. Atop a cool (40s to low 50s F) boundary layer, these thunderstorms will generally be rooted around 850 mb/1.4 km AGL. Elevated buoyancy will remain modest ( Read more
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