SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0653 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Valid 251300Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
TEXAS INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...NORTHERN LOUISIANA AND NORTH-CENTRAL
MISSISSIPPI...

...SUMMARY...
A couple of severe thunderstorms may occur across
north-central/northeast Texas through the Ark-La-Tex vicinity
tonight, with a couple instances of marginally severe hail and
damaging wind gusts possible.

...Synopsis...
Broad cyclonic flow aloft will dominate the upper pattern across the
CONUS through today. An embedded mid-level trough will traverse the
Southern Plains while a second trough aloft impinges on the Pacific
Northwest. Across the southern Plains into portions of the
Mid-South, a stable boundary layer will be in place to the north of
a surface front across south-central/southeast Texas toward the
lower Mississippi Valley. A 35-45 kt southwesterly low-level jet
will develop and increase this evening, leading to elevated moisture
transport and increasing thunderstorms, including the possibility of
some strong to locally severe storms.

Across the northwest U.S., meager buoyancy preceding the approach of
a mid-level trough and associated source of ascent may encourage
isolated thunderstorm development to the lee of the Cascades.
Elsewhere across the CONUS, cool and stable conditions will serve to
mitigate thunderstorm chances.

...North Texas to lower Mississippi Valley tonight...
Initial thunderstorm development is most probable across
north-central/northeast Texas by late afternoon/early evening, with
scattered thunderstorms becoming more prevalent after sunset as they
develop east-northeastward across northern Louisiana, southern
Arkansas, and eventually northern/central Mississippi. Focused north
of the surface reflection of the front, this development will be
related to increasing warm/moist advection and DPVA as the
southern-stream shortwave trough reaches southern Oklahoma and
west/northern Texas. 

Atop a cool (40s to low 50s F) boundary layer, these thunderstorms
will generally be rooted around 850 mb/1.4 km AGL. Elevated buoyancy
will remain modest (
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