Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0353 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021 Valid 281200Z - 051200Z ...DISCUSSION... Blocking may persist to some degree within the evolving large-scale pattern over the eastern Pacific late this weekend into early next week, maintaining a split flow with embedded short wave developments characterized by a relatively low degree of predictability. In general, though, by the middle of next week, it does appear that a progression of short waves will contribute to the suppression of fairly prominent initial subtropical ridging centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico/northwestern Caribbean. There also appears consensus that amplified large-scale troughing will evolve across the eastern Pacific (mostly to the west of the Pacific coast), with downstream large-scale ridging building inland of the Pacific coast through the U.S. Great Plains and Canadian Prairies. While developments east of the Rockies are more uncertain, a frontal zone initially extending from near or south of the Texas Big Bend into the Mid Atlantic Coast region may provide a focus for continuing thunderstorm development, and perhaps at least some severe weather potential. In the wake of a deepening surface cyclone across the Great Lakes into Quebec on Sunday, this frontal zone may shift southward into the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast states by early next week. As it does, it is possible that destabilization along and south of it could become sufficient to support vigorous thunderstorms with the potential to produce damaging wind gusts and perhaps a risk for tornadoes, in the presence of strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear. As the frontal zone becomes quasi-stationary across the southern tier of the U.S. during the early to middle portion of next week, the extent of any continuing severe weather potential will largely depend on the strength of subsequent surface wave development along it. There has been, and continues to be, considerable variability within medium range output concerning this.
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