Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0353 AM CST Thu Feb 25 2021

Valid 281200Z - 051200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Blocking may persist to some degree within the evolving large-scale
pattern over the eastern Pacific late this weekend into early next
week, maintaining a split flow with embedded short wave developments
characterized by a relatively low degree of predictability.  In
general, though, by the middle of next week, it does appear that a
progression of short waves will contribute to the suppression of
fairly prominent initial subtropical ridging centered over the
southeastern Gulf of Mexico/northwestern Caribbean.  There also
appears consensus that amplified large-scale troughing will evolve
across the eastern Pacific (mostly to the west of the Pacific
coast), with downstream large-scale ridging building inland of the
Pacific coast through the U.S. Great Plains and Canadian Prairies.

While developments east of the Rockies are more uncertain, a frontal
zone initially extending from near or south of the Texas Big Bend
into the Mid Atlantic Coast region may provide a focus for
continuing thunderstorm development, and perhaps at least some
severe weather potential.  In the wake of a deepening surface
cyclone across the Great Lakes into Quebec on Sunday, this frontal
zone may shift southward into the south Atlantic and Gulf Coast
states by early next week. As it does, it is possible that
destabilization along and south of it could become sufficient to
support vigorous thunderstorms with the potential to produce
damaging wind gusts and perhaps a risk for tornadoes, in the
presence of strong deep-layer mean wind fields and shear.

As the frontal zone becomes quasi-stationary across the southern
tier of the U.S. during the early to middle portion of next week,
the extent of any continuing severe weather potential will largely
depend on the strength of subsequent surface wave development along
it.  There has been, and continues to be, considerable variability
within medium range output concerning this.

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