Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CST Sat Feb 27 2021

Valid 021200Z - 071200Z

A series of upper shortwave troughs will migrate across the southern
tier of the U.S. during the Day 4-8 period. The first in this
series, located over the southern/central Plains on Day 4/Tue will
shift eastward to the Carolinas/Mid-Atlantic vicinity through Day
5/Wed. At the surface, a weak low will develop near coastal LA on
Tuesday, shifting east/northeast across the southern states and
offshore the Carolinas by Wednesday evening. This will bring a cold
front across the southeastern U.S. and widespread showers and
thunderstorms are expected. Much of this activity is expected to
remain elevated, with instability limited and shear relatively
modest. High pressure will settle across the eastern half of the
U.S. Day 6/Thu, with the surface cold front continuing southward
into the northern Gulf and FL Straits vicinity. 

Late in the period, a second upper shortwave trough/closed low is
expected to develop eastward across the southern Plains and Gulf
coast vicinity around Day 7/Fri-Day 8/Sat. Guidance varies quite a
bit in the evolution of this system, with some medium range guidance
digging the trough fairly far south into the Gulf. This could limit
northward moisture return, keeping any severe potential offshore
from the central Gulf coast. However, this could bring an increase
in severe potential to the FL Peninsula over the weekend. Given
large spread, uncertainty is too great to include severe
probabilities at this time.

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