SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1122 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Monday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A closed upper low over NM will move slowly eastward across the southern Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid-level west-southwesterly flow will be maintained over much of the southern Plains and Southeast through the period, as a separate upper trough moves eastward from the Great Lakes/OH Valley across the Northeast and Mid-Atlantic through the period. A surface cold front is expected to continue moving south-southeastward across TX and much of the Southeast through the day. A pocket of modestly steepened mid-level lapse rates and weak elevated instability may persist Monday morning across parts of coastal/southeast TX to the north of the surface front. Ongoing elevated storms across this region may pose a small hail risk, but this activity should diminish by midday. Towards the central Gulf Coast, very poor mid-level lapse rates will likely inhibit robust updrafts, but isolated lightning flashes with convection along or just ahead of the front may occur. These poor lapse rates, weak low-level winds, and limited instability all suggest that any gusty wind threat should remain too isolated for even low severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 02/28/2021
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