SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1122 AM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Valid 011200Z - 021200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Monday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low over NM will move slowly eastward across the
southern Plains on Monday. A belt of enhanced mid-level
west-southwesterly flow will be maintained over much of the southern
Plains and Southeast through the period, as a separate upper trough
moves eastward from the Great Lakes/OH Valley across the Northeast
and Mid-Atlantic through the period. A surface cold front is
expected to continue moving south-southeastward across TX and much
of the Southeast through the day. A pocket of modestly steepened
mid-level lapse rates and weak elevated instability may persist
Monday morning across parts of coastal/southeast TX to the north of
the surface front. Ongoing elevated storms across this region may
pose a small hail risk, but this activity should diminish by midday.
Towards the central Gulf Coast, very poor mid-level lapse rates will
likely inhibit robust updrafts, but isolated lightning flashes with
convection along or just ahead of the front may occur. These poor
lapse rates, weak low-level winds, and limited instability all
suggest that any gusty wind threat should remain too isolated for
even low severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 02/28/2021

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