SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0655 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021

Valid 010100Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
TEXAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible
through tonight from northeast Texas into the Mid-South and
Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms, with some marginal severe
hail threat, are possible later tonight across southwest into
south-central Texas.

...01z Update...

An elongated corridor of deep convection has matured and currently
extends from northeast TX-eastern AR-western TN-southern KY. This
activity has developed ahead of a notable cold front that should
continue to advance southeast through the end of the period. While
the primary storm mode is multi-faceted with a considerable amount
of linear and convective structures, a few supercells are noted
within the larger complex. 00z sounding from SHV exhibited a profile
that is supportive of supercells with SBCAPE on the order of 1900
J/kg with 240 sfc-3km SRH. It appears the greatest severe threat
will continue along a corridor from northeast TX into middle TN.
Damaging winds are the main threat, but a few tornadoes are also
possible.

Farther southwest, strong upper low is digging southeast across
AZ/NM. This feature should encourage elevated convection across
portions of southwest TX around 06z, +/- a few hours. This activity
should spread east ahead of large-scale forcing, along the cool side
of the southward-surging cold front. Hail is the primary risk with
this activity.

..Darrow.. 03/01/2021

Read more
There’s more click here.

Comments are closed.