SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0655 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 010100Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF TEXAS INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... Damaging thunderstorm wind gusts and a few tornadoes remain possible through tonight from northeast Texas into the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley. A few strong storms, with some marginal severe hail threat, are possible later tonight across southwest into south-central Texas. ...01z Update... An elongated corridor of deep convection has matured and currently extends from northeast TX-eastern AR-western TN-southern KY. This activity has developed ahead of a notable cold front that should continue to advance southeast through the end of the period. While the primary storm mode is multi-faceted with a considerable amount of linear and convective structures, a few supercells are noted within the larger complex. 00z sounding from SHV exhibited a profile that is supportive of supercells with SBCAPE on the order of 1900 J/kg with 240 sfc-3km SRH. It appears the greatest severe threat will continue along a corridor from northeast TX into middle TN. Damaging winds are the main threat, but a few tornadoes are also possible. Farther southwest, strong upper low is digging southeast across AZ/NM. This feature should encourage elevated convection across portions of southwest TX around 06z, +/- a few hours. This activity should spread east ahead of large-scale forcing, along the cool side of the southward-surging cold front. Hail is the primary risk with this activity. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2021
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