SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1102 PM CST Sun Feb 28 2021 Valid 011200Z - 021200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not expected after sunrise. ...Gulf States... Mid-level height falls will strengthen across the southern Plains during the latter half of the period ahead of a notable short-wave trough that should advance into OK/north TX during the overnight hours. As a result, meaningful large-scale ascent will remain focused well north of the surface front which should surge of the TX Coast early in the period. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates will remain conducive for elevated convection ahead of the short wave. There is some concern that a few robust updrafts may be ongoing at the start of the period across south-central TX, in closer proximity to a bit more buoyancy; however, any hail production should remain mostly sub-severe. Downstream, weak low-level convergence along the southward-advancing front will not be particularly advantageous for more than isolated lightning flashes within the strongest convection. ..Darrow.. 03/01/2021
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