SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Mon Mar 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z


Severe thunderstorms currently appear unlikely on Tuesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
An upper trough/low is forecast to move eastward from the southern
Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast on Tuesday. A belt
of moderate to strong mid-level westerly winds will be maintained
across these regions along and ahead of the upper trough/low.
Low-level warm advection should also occur along the central Gulf
Coast states through much of the period. Elevated thunderstorms may
develop in this regime, with a surface front likely remaining
offshore through at least late Tuesday afternoon. A weak surface low
should eventually develop slightly inland Tuesday evening/night
across the FL Panhandle and southern GA vicinity. A warm front
attendant to the surface low may lift northward across these regions
late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Fairly strong
low/mid-level flow and a veering wind profile with height will
likely be present, but uncertainty remains regarding the degree of
destabilization and potential for surface-based storms. At this
point, the forecast low-level moisture still appears a little too
marginal to include low severe probabilities across any part of the
FL Panhandle.

..Gleason.. 03/01/2021

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