SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Mon Mar 01 2021 Valid 021200Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms currently appear unlikely on Tuesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... An upper trough/low is forecast to move eastward from the southern Plains across the lower MS Valley and Southeast on Tuesday. A belt of moderate to strong mid-level westerly winds will be maintained across these regions along and ahead of the upper trough/low. Low-level warm advection should also occur along the central Gulf Coast states through much of the period. Elevated thunderstorms may develop in this regime, with a surface front likely remaining offshore through at least late Tuesday afternoon. A weak surface low should eventually develop slightly inland Tuesday evening/night across the FL Panhandle and southern GA vicinity. A warm front attendant to the surface low may lift northward across these regions late Tuesday evening into early Wednesday morning. Fairly strong low/mid-level flow and a veering wind profile with height will likely be present, but uncertainty remains regarding the degree of destabilization and potential for surface-based storms. At this point, the forecast low-level moisture still appears a little too marginal to include low severe probabilities across any part of the FL Panhandle. ..Gleason.. 03/01/2021
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