SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

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Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1151 PM CST Mon Mar 01 2021

Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms appear unlikely on Tuesday.

...Discussion...
As an upper low departs from New England into the Canadian Maritime
Provinces, a less-amplified upper flow field will prevail across the
U.S. on Tuesday.  While an eastern Pacific upper low will begin to
approach southern California overnight, the center will remain
offshore through the period.  The only feature of interest aloft --
with respect to the convective forecast -- will be a compact low
initially over eastern Oklahoma, which will then move steadily
east-southeastward to the lower Mississippi Valley by dark, and then
continuing to the southern Appalachians vicinity by the end of the
period.

As this feature advances, a weak surface frontal wave is progged to
evolve along the west-to-east baroclinic zone extending from the
northern Gulf of Mexico to central Florida.  The low should move
just south of the mouth of the Mississippi River during the
afternoon, and then to a position near or just south of Apalachicola
FL after midnight as the surface front continues a slow northward
drift across northern Florida.  Eventually, a second wave -- which
will eventually become the predominant one -- will begin developing
along the retreating boundary, just off the Georgia Coast through
latter stages of the period.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to spread across the central
Gulf Coast States/Southeast, in a zone of warm advection atop a cool
boundary layer.  Instability should remain modest -- likely
insufficient to support updrafts vigorous enough to produce any more
than small hail.  Even nearer the front/surface low overnight, i.e.
across northern Florida, the boundary layer is expected to remain
slightly stable -- likely precluding fully surface-based storms, and
as such, any associated severe potential.  Therefore, no risk areas
will be added to the forecast, as probability remains below the MRGL
risk threshold.

..Goss/Bentley.. 03/02/2021

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