SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1026 AM CST Tue Mar 02 2021 Valid 021630Z - 031200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Thunderstorms are possible today through tonight across parts of the central/northeastern Gulf Coastal Plain eastward to coastal Georgia, southern South Carolina and northern Florida. ...Southeast... A compact upper low continues to track eastward across OK/AR, with large-scale lift affecting much of the southeast states today. This is resulting in a region of showers and isolated thunderstorms from southeast LA into MS/AL/GA/FL. This activity will persist through the afternoon/tonight while moving slowly eastward. Models are in agreement that a deepening surface low will track across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, with the associated warm front just off or barely on shore over the FL panhandle this evening. This may result in a few strong storms in the coastal waters or perhaps slightly inland. However, most CAM solutions suggest the risk of a surface-based storm moving ashore is rather low, so will maintain the ongoing forecast of less-than 5% coverage of severe. If a surface-based storm could affect the Big Bend area of FL, it would pose a risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado. ..Hart.. 03/02/2021
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