SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0152 PM CST Tue Mar 02 2021

Valid 022000Z - 031200Z


Thunderstorms are possible through tonight across parts of the
central/northeastern Gulf Coastal Plain eastward to coastal Georgia,
southern South Carolina and northern Florida.

Minimal changes were made to the ongoing thunderstorm forecast for
parts of the Southeast.

..Smith.. 03/02/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1026 AM CST Tue Mar 02 2021/

A compact upper low continues to track eastward across OK/AR, with
large-scale lift affecting much of the southeast states today.  This
is resulting in a region of showers and isolated thunderstorms from
southeast LA into MS/AL/GA/FL.  This activity will persist through
the afternoon/tonight while moving slowly eastward.

Models are in agreement that a deepening surface low will track
across the northern Gulf of Mexico today, with the associated warm
front just off or barely on shore over the FL panhandle this
evening.  This may result in a few strong storms in the coastal
waters or perhaps slightly inland.  However, most CAM solutions
suggest the risk of a surface-based storm moving ashore is rather
low, so will maintain the ongoing forecast of less-than 5% coverage
of severe.  If a surface-based storm could affect the Big Bend area
of FL, it would pose a risk of damaging winds or a brief tornado.

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