SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1128 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 041200Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN
TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms may be capable of large hail over parts the
Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma on Thursday during the late
afternoon and early evening.

...Synopsis...
A mid-level low will move from the Four Corners to central OK during
the period.  A surface low will develop over northwest TX during the
day in response to the approaching upper system.  Southerly
low-level flow will advect marginal moisture northward into parts of
western OK/eastern TX Panhandle to the east of a dryline.  Surface
dewpoints are forecast in the 45-50 deg F range beneath steepening
700-500 mb lapse rates (around 8-9 deg C/km) as rapid dynamic
mid-level cooling occurs during the late afternoon to early evening.
 Models vary a bit regarding moisture quality but it seems plausible
250-750 J/kg MUCAPE will develop during the 22z-03z period coupled
with effective shear 25-35 kt.  A few more intense updrafts
(multicellular to weak supercell structure) may be capable of a risk
for large hail before the activity weakens while moving east into
central OK during the late evening.

..Smith.. 03/03/2021

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