SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1128 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021 Valid 041200Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE EASTERN TX PANHANDLE...WESTERN OK... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms may be capable of large hail over parts the Texas Panhandle and western Oklahoma on Thursday during the late afternoon and early evening. ...Synopsis... A mid-level low will move from the Four Corners to central OK during the period. A surface low will develop over northwest TX during the day in response to the approaching upper system. Southerly low-level flow will advect marginal moisture northward into parts of western OK/eastern TX Panhandle to the east of a dryline. Surface dewpoints are forecast in the 45-50 deg F range beneath steepening 700-500 mb lapse rates (around 8-9 deg C/km) as rapid dynamic mid-level cooling occurs during the late afternoon to early evening. Models vary a bit regarding moisture quality but it seems plausible 250-750 J/kg MUCAPE will develop during the 22z-03z period coupled with effective shear 25-35 kt. A few more intense updrafts (multicellular to weak supercell structure) may be capable of a risk for large hail before the activity weakens while moving east into central OK during the late evening. ..Smith.. 03/03/2021
There’s more click here.