Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021 Valid 061200Z - 111200Z ...DISCUSSION... Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that severe potential will be low through at least Day 6/Mon. Strong surface high pressure will persist east of the Rockies during this time. Offshore trajectories will keep Gulf moisture well offshore and dry/stable conditions will prevail. Around Day 7/Tuesday, an upper trough will eject across the western U.S. to the central/southern Plains. Strong surface low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains in response. Strong southerly low level flow will allow northward Gulf moisture return, ahead of a surface cold front. Some strong-to- severe thunderstorm risk could develop on Day 7/Tue or Day 8/Wed across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Mid/Lower MS Valley. However, uncertainty remains high with large spread among various guidance in timing of the upper trough, surface high and moisture return, precluding severe probabilities.
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