Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CST Wed Mar 03 2021

Valid 061200Z - 111200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Medium-range guidance continues to indicate that severe potential
will be low through at least Day 6/Mon. Strong surface high pressure
will persist east of the Rockies during this time. Offshore
trajectories will keep Gulf moisture well offshore and dry/stable
conditions will prevail. Around Day 7/Tuesday, an upper trough will
eject across the western U.S. to the central/southern Plains. Strong
surface low development is forecast over the northern/central Plains
in response. Strong southerly low level flow will allow northward
Gulf moisture return, ahead of a surface cold front. Some strong-to-
severe thunderstorm risk could develop on Day 7/Tue or Day 8/Wed
across parts of the southern/central Plains to the Mid/Lower MS
Valley. However, uncertainty remains high with large spread among
various guidance in timing of the upper trough, surface high and
moisture return, precluding severe probabilities.

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