SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1018 AM CST Thu Mar 04 2021

Valid 041630Z - 051200Z


Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and
evening over parts of the northeastern Texas Panhandle, western
Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas.

A mid/upper-level trough near the Four Corners will move out onto
the southern Plains and deepen slightly by late afternoon. A surface
cyclone will intensify across the Raton Mesa and move southeastward
roughly along the Red River. Modest moisture return is expected to
the east of a dryline that will advance into western Oklahoma this

...South-central Plains...
Morning observations continue to show relatively dry surface
conditions across the southern Plains with 50s F dewpoints remaining
along the Texas Gulf Coast. With low-level southerly winds expected
to increase as the surface low deepens, low-level moisture will also
improve during the day and especially as the low-level jet increases
into western Oklahoma late this afternoon. Even so, storms that are
able to form along the dryline/surface trough are likely to be
elevated as lift in the 850-700 mb layer cools and moistens the
profile. With the upper-level low moving overhead, cold temperatures
(around -20 to -23 C) aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates.
Updrafts will likely be shallow with a few becoming briefly intense
with around 500-800 J/kg MUCAPE. Effective shear across these
updrafts will be sufficient for organized storms capable of
producing large hail. With low levels remaining relatively dry, a
few strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible especially with
earlier activity. Other elevated storm development is possible along
a weak warm front into central Oklahoma. Much weaker buoyancy is
expected to minimize storm intensity, though small hail could occur.

..Wendt.. 03/04/2021

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