SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1018 AM CST Thu Mar 04 2021 Valid 041630Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening over parts of the northeastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas. ...Synopsis... A mid/upper-level trough near the Four Corners will move out onto the southern Plains and deepen slightly by late afternoon. A surface cyclone will intensify across the Raton Mesa and move southeastward roughly along the Red River. Modest moisture return is expected to the east of a dryline that will advance into western Oklahoma this evening. ...South-central Plains... Morning observations continue to show relatively dry surface conditions across the southern Plains with 50s F dewpoints remaining along the Texas Gulf Coast. With low-level southerly winds expected to increase as the surface low deepens, low-level moisture will also improve during the day and especially as the low-level jet increases into western Oklahoma late this afternoon. Even so, storms that are able to form along the dryline/surface trough are likely to be elevated as lift in the 850-700 mb layer cools and moistens the profile. With the upper-level low moving overhead, cold temperatures (around -20 to -23 C) aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates. Updrafts will likely be shallow with a few becoming briefly intense with around 500-800 J/kg MUCAPE. Effective shear across these updrafts will be sufficient for organized storms capable of producing large hail. With low levels remaining relatively dry, a few strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible especially with earlier activity. Other elevated storm development is possible along a weak warm front into central Oklahoma. Much weaker buoyancy is expected to minimize storm intensity, though small hail could occur. ..Wendt.. 03/04/2021
There’s more click here.