SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0143 PM CST Thu Mar 04 2021

Valid 042000Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WESTERN OKLAHOMA
INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible late this afternoon and
evening over parts of the northeastern Texas Panhandle, western
Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 03/04/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1018 AM CST Thu Mar 04 2021/

...Synopsis...
A mid/upper-level trough near the Four Corners will move out onto
the southern Plains and deepen slightly by late afternoon. A surface
cyclone will intensify across the Raton Mesa and move southeastward
roughly along the Red River. Modest moisture return is expected to
the east of a dryline that will advance into western Oklahoma this
evening.

...South-central Plains...
Morning observations continue to show relatively dry surface
conditions across the southern Plains with 50s F dewpoints remaining
along the Texas Gulf Coast. With low-level southerly winds expected
to increase as the surface low deepens, low-level moisture will also
improve during the day and especially as the low-level jet increases
into western Oklahoma late this afternoon. Even so, storms that are
able to form along the dryline/surface trough are likely to be
elevated as lift in the 850-700 mb layer cools and moistens the
profile. With the upper-level low moving overhead, cold temperatures
(around -20 to -23 C) aloft will steepen mid-level lapse rates.
Updrafts will likely be shallow with a few becoming briefly intense
with around 500-800 J/kg MUCAPE. Effective shear across these
updrafts will be sufficient for organized storms capable of
producing large hail. With low levels remaining relatively dry, a
few strong/damaging wind gusts will be possible especially with
earlier activity. Other elevated storm development is possible along
a weak warm front into central Oklahoma. Much weaker buoyancy is
expected to minimize storm intensity, though small hail could occur.

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