SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0632 PM CST Thu Mar 04 2021

Valid 050100Z - 051200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over parts
of the northeastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, eastern
Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas.

...01z Update...

Well-defined upper low has progressed into south-central CO early
this evening. Very cool 500mb temperatures (-22C) are spreading
across the central High Plains, per 00z soundings at AMA and DDC.
This is contributing to 8-9 C/km lapse rates within a favorably
forced/sheared environment. Although low-level moisture is quite
low, PW values are approaching .7 inch across western OK and
continued mid-level forcing/moistening should lead to a bit more
buoyancy over the next few hours as LLJ remains focused across
western OK. While lightning has been confined to elevated convection
across southwestern KS, further elevated activity should
develop/spread southeast into western OK through late evening.
Latest thinking is marginally severe hail and perhaps some gusty
winds are the greatest threats.

..Darrow.. 03/05/2021

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