SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0632 PM CST Thu Mar 04 2021 Valid 050100Z - 051200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible this evening over parts of the northeastern Texas Panhandle, western Oklahoma, eastern Oklahoma Panhandle, and southwestern Kansas. ...01z Update... Well-defined upper low has progressed into south-central CO early this evening. Very cool 500mb temperatures (-22C) are spreading across the central High Plains, per 00z soundings at AMA and DDC. This is contributing to 8-9 C/km lapse rates within a favorably forced/sheared environment. Although low-level moisture is quite low, PW values are approaching .7 inch across western OK and continued mid-level forcing/moistening should lead to a bit more buoyancy over the next few hours as LLJ remains focused across western OK. While lightning has been confined to elevated convection across southwestern KS, further elevated activity should develop/spread southeast into western OK through late evening. Latest thinking is marginally severe hail and perhaps some gusty winds are the greatest threats. ..Darrow.. 03/05/2021
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