SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1131 PM CST Thu Mar 04 2021

Valid 051200Z - 061200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are not forecast over the contiguous United
States during the day1 period.

...Discussion...


Upper low has settled into southeast CO late this evening, and is
expected to open up as it digs into the lower MS Valley after
06/00z. This movement should allow a weak surface low to track from
north-central TX early in the period to off the middle TX Coast
after sunset. Latest model guidance suggests low-level convergence
along/ahead of this feature should prove weak and likely inadequate
to warrant any serious threat for robust organized convection,
especially given the expected instability. Forecast soundings do,
however, exhibit adequate buoyancy for lightning within the deeper
updrafts ahead of the trough. Most-unstable parcels are generally
elevated with only a brief, narrow window of near-surface based
instability possible ahead of the front over the coastal Plain of TX
by late afternoon. For these reasons, the probability for severe
with these storms will be too meager to warrant a MRGL Risk during
the day1 period.

..Darrow/Moore.. 03/05/2021

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