SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1131 PM CST Thu Mar 04 2021 Valid 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are not forecast over the contiguous United States during the day1 period. ...Discussion... Upper low has settled into southeast CO late this evening, and is expected to open up as it digs into the lower MS Valley after 06/00z. This movement should allow a weak surface low to track from north-central TX early in the period to off the middle TX Coast after sunset. Latest model guidance suggests low-level convergence along/ahead of this feature should prove weak and likely inadequate to warrant any serious threat for robust organized convection, especially given the expected instability. Forecast soundings do, however, exhibit adequate buoyancy for lightning within the deeper updrafts ahead of the trough. Most-unstable parcels are generally elevated with only a brief, narrow window of near-surface based instability possible ahead of the front over the coastal Plain of TX by late afternoon. For these reasons, the probability for severe with these storms will be too meager to warrant a MRGL Risk during the day1 period. ..Darrow/Moore.. 03/05/2021
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