SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 05 2021 Valid 051630Z - 061200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA... ...SUMMARY... A few thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds may develop this afternoon over portions of east-central through southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana. ...East central through southeast Texas... As of late morning a cold front stretches from a surface low near Gainesville, south southwestward through east central and south TX. A warm front extends from the northwestern Gulf into southeast and south central TX. Partially modified Gulf air with upper 50s to near 60 F dewpoints reside in the warm sector. Visible imagery still indicates widespread low and mid-level clouds in pre-frontal zone, but some of these clouds should mix out from the south and west resulting in a narrow corridor of modest surface heating which should boost MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg from east central into southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA. Deeper forcing attending a vorticity maximum embedded within a cutoff upper low circulation will move from northwest TX into east central and southeast TX this afternoon. This should foster thunderstorm development along and east of the cold front later today. Though winds increase substantially above 5 km, the anticipated relatively shallow convective layer should limit effective bulk shear to between 30 and 40 kt. A few cells might develop weak mid-level updraft rotation and when combined with 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and modest instability, could pose some risk for hail. Some clustering of storms is possible and a few locally strong wind gusts might occur before activity moves offshore this evening. Overall threat should remain limited by the marginal thermodynamic environment. ..Dial.. 03/05/2021
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