SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0146 PM CST Fri Mar 05 2021

Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM EAST
CENTRAL INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms capable of producing hail and gusty winds may
develop this afternoon over portions of east-central through
southeast Texas and far southwest Louisiana.

...Discussion...
No appreciable change was made to the previous convective outlook.

..Smith.. 03/05/2021

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1030 AM CST Fri Mar 05 2021/

...East central through southeast Texas...

As of late morning a cold front stretches from a surface low near
Gainesville, south southwestward through east central and south TX.
A warm front extends from the northwestern Gulf into southeast and
south central TX. Partially modified Gulf air with upper 50s to near
60 F dewpoints reside in the warm sector. Visible imagery still
indicates widespread low and mid-level clouds in pre-frontal zone,
but some of these clouds should mix out from the south and west
resulting in a narrow corridor of modest surface heating which
should boost MLCAPE to near 500 J/kg from east central into
southeast TX and possibly far southwest LA. Deeper forcing attending
a vorticity maximum embedded within a cutoff upper low circulation
will move from northwest TX into east central and southeast TX this
afternoon. This should foster thunderstorm development along and
east of the cold front later today. Though winds increase
substantially above 5 km, the anticipated relatively shallow
convective layer should limit effective bulk shear to between 30 and
40 kt. A few cells might develop weak mid-level updraft rotation and
when combined with 7 C/km mid-level lapse rates and modest
instability, could pose some risk for hail. Some clustering of
storms is possible and a few locally strong wind gusts might occur
before activity moves offshore this evening. Overall threat should
remain limited by the marginal thermodynamic environment.

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