SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0231 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI... ...SUMMARY... A marginal threat of severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind gusts will be possible from parts of far northern Oklahoma into western Missouri, from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Far Northern Oklahoma/Kansas/Western Missouri... Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across much of the central U.S. At the surface, a low is forecast to move northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley as a cold front advances southeastward into southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas. A belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection ahead of the front during the day. Surface dewpoints are expected to gradually increase near the moist axis, reaching the mid to upper 50s F from Oklahoma north-northeastward into northwest Missouri and southeast Iowa. Instability will increase along this corridor during the afternoon with model forecasts suggesting that MLCAPE values could reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings along the corridor of instability from Wichita north-northeastward to Kansas City show a capping inversion this afternoon but gradually weaken the cap during the evening. This combined with a strengthening low-level jet will result thunderstorm development with a gradual increase in convective coverage in the late afternoon and evening. As the low-level jet strengthens during the evening, continued moisture advection should allow MUCAPE values to increase in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg range. This, combined with effective shear near 50 kt, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km, should support a hail threat. A wind-damage threat may also develop across parts of northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas where thunderstorms could become more closely surface-based during the late evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/08/2021
There’s more click here.