SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0231 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA...KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal threat of severe thunderstorms with hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible from parts of far northern Oklahoma into
western Missouri, from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday
night.

...Far Northern Oklahoma/Kansas/Western Missouri...
Southwest mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across much
of the central U.S. At the surface, a low is forecast to move
northeastward across the mid Missouri Valley as a cold front
advances southeastward into southeast Nebraska and northern Kansas.
A belt of strong low-level flow will maintain moisture advection
ahead of the front during the day. Surface dewpoints are expected to
gradually increase near the moist axis, reaching the mid to upper
50s F from Oklahoma north-northeastward into northwest Missouri and
southeast Iowa. Instability will increase along this corridor during
the afternoon with model forecasts suggesting that MLCAPE values
could reach the 500 to 1000 J/kg range. Forecast soundings along the
corridor of instability from Wichita north-northeastward to Kansas
City show a capping inversion this afternoon but gradually weaken
the cap during the evening. This combined with a strengthening
low-level jet will result thunderstorm development with a gradual
increase in convective coverage in the late afternoon and evening.

As the low-level jet strengthens during the evening, continued
moisture advection should allow MUCAPE values to increase in the
1000 to 1500 J/kg range. This, combined with effective shear near 50
kt, along with 700-500 mb lapse rates approaching 8.0 C/km, should
support a hail threat. A wind-damage threat may also develop across
parts of northern Oklahoma and southeast Kansas where thunderstorms
could become more closely surface-based during the late evening and
overnight period.

..Broyles.. 03/08/2021

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