SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0616 AM CST Mon Mar 08 2021

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
A few thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Coast.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A stable continental air mass is currently in place from the
southern Plains eastward/northeastward into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast States. Western portion of this air mass is forecast to
modify throughout the day as southerly return flow increases ahead
of an approaching shortwave trough (currently moving through
southern CA). Even with this strengthening return flow, low 60s
dewpoints will likely only reach the far south TX Gulf Coast,
keeping the airmass over the Plains stable.

Farther west/northwest, a pair of shortwave troughs is expected to
rotate around the parent upper low and into the Pacific Northwest.
The first is expected to move over this morning with the second
following late tonight/early tomorrow morning. Isolated
thunderstorms appear possible within the frontal bands associated
with these two shortwaves as well as the steep mid-level lapse-0rate
environment expected to persist between the two systems. This
thunderstorm potential will be confined to the immediate coastal
areas of OR and northern CA where slightly better low-level moisture
fosters meager buoyancy. 

A lightning flash or two is also possible from east-central OR into
central ID as the lead shortwave move through. However, overall
coverage is expected to remain less than 10%.

..Mosier.. 03/08/2021

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