SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1123 PM CST Mon Mar 08 2021

Valid 091200Z - 101200Z


A few thunderstorms are forecast mainly along the West Coast, while
isolated activity cannot be ruled out over Iowa and neighboring
states later tonight.

...West Coast...

Weak mid-level height falls are expected across the western US as
strong 500mb flow gradually sags south across southern CA/AZ. Very
cold temperatures (-30C at 500mb or lower) will be noted north of
the jet and steep, but cold, lapse rates will prove favorable for
low-topped convection, especially in proximity to onshore flow off
the Pacific Ocean. While much of the convection may struggle to
produce lightning, as has been the case the last few days with this
system, stronger updrafts will likely generate at least a few
flashes. Low thunderstorm probabilities will reflect this threat,
primarily near the Pacific Coast. 

...Eastern NE/IA Region...

Weak short-wave trough is forecast to eject northeast across the
central Plains toward IA during the overnight hours. This should aid
a LLJ that will increase across OK/KS/MO into southern IA by 10/06Z.
While boundary-layer moisture return will be inadequate for
surface-based buoyancy, forecast soundings suggest parcels lifted
near 800-850mb may become uninhibited after midnight as LLJ
strengthens. For these reasons it appears a few elevated
thunderstorms may develop within the low-level warm advection zone.

..Darrow/Moore.. 03/09/2021

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