SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1259 AM CST Tue Mar 09 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z


A threat of severe thunderstorms with large hail and strong wind
gusts will be possible from parts of far northern Oklahoma into
central and eastern Kansas, from late Wednesday afternoon through
Wednesday night.

...Northern Oklahoma/Kansas/Western Missouri...
Southwest mid-level flow will be maintained on Wednesday from the
Desert Southwest northeastward into the Great Lakes. The exit region
of a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet will move across the central Plains.
At the surface, a low will move from far northern Kansas
northeastward into Iowa as a cold front advances southeastward
across the central Plains. Strong low-level flow will result in
moisture advection across the southern and central Plains throughout
the day. By late Wednesday afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast
to be in the mid to upper 50s F from Oklahoma into southern and east
Kansas into southwest Missouri. A capping inversion across the
central Plains is expected to weaken during the early to mid
evening, allowing thunderstorms to rapidly develop in parts of south
and central Kansas. This convection should spread east-northeastward
into western Missouri. Additional thunderstorms will be possible
further south into far northern Oklahoma.

NAM forecast soundings during the evening south of the front across
south-central Kansas by late Wednesday evening increase MUCAPE to
near 2000 J/kg and steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to near 8.0 C/km.
This combined with 60 kt of effective shear should support supercell
development with a potential for large hail. A cluster of storms
with some embedded rotating storms is expected to develop near the
I-35 corridor and move northeastward across eastern Kansas during
the evening, where large hail will be possible. The hail threat may
persist into the overnight period as convection moves across parts
of central and northern Missouri. A hail threat may also develop
further to the south across central and northern Oklahoma, but a
capping inversion there will make the threat more conditional. An
isolated wind damage threat may also develop with this convective
cluster. However, most of the storms will be elevated which should
keep any wind damage threat marginal.

..Broyles.. 03/09/2021

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