SPC 0700Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1259 AM CST Tue Mar 09 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF FAR NORTHERN OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS... ...SUMMARY... A threat of severe thunderstorms with large hail and strong wind gusts will be possible from parts of far northern Oklahoma into central and eastern Kansas, from late Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. ...Northern Oklahoma/Kansas/Western Missouri... Southwest mid-level flow will be maintained on Wednesday from the Desert Southwest northeastward into the Great Lakes. The exit region of a 75 to 90 kt mid-level jet will move across the central Plains. At the surface, a low will move from far northern Kansas northeastward into Iowa as a cold front advances southeastward across the central Plains. Strong low-level flow will result in moisture advection across the southern and central Plains throughout the day. By late Wednesday afternoon, surface dewpoints are forecast to be in the mid to upper 50s F from Oklahoma into southern and east Kansas into southwest Missouri. A capping inversion across the central Plains is expected to weaken during the early to mid evening, allowing thunderstorms to rapidly develop in parts of south and central Kansas. This convection should spread east-northeastward into western Missouri. Additional thunderstorms will be possible further south into far northern Oklahoma. NAM forecast soundings during the evening south of the front across south-central Kansas by late Wednesday evening increase MUCAPE to near 2000 J/kg and steepen 700-500 mb lapse rates to near 8.0 C/km. This combined with 60 kt of effective shear should support supercell development with a potential for large hail. A cluster of storms with some embedded rotating storms is expected to develop near the I-35 corridor and move northeastward across eastern Kansas during the evening, where large hail will be possible. The hail threat may persist into the overnight period as convection moves across parts of central and northern Missouri. A hail threat may also develop further to the south across central and northern Oklahoma, but a capping inversion there will make the threat more conditional. An isolated wind damage threat may also develop with this convective cluster. However, most of the storms will be elevated which should keep any wind damage threat marginal. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2021
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