SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0232 AM CST Tue Mar 09 2021 Valid 111200Z - 121200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS... ...SUMMARY... A marginal severe threat may develop across parts of the southern Plains and Ozarks from late Thursday afternoon into the overnight period. ...Southern Plains/Ozarks... Southwest mid-level flow will be maintained on Thursday across much of the southern, central and northeastern U.S. At the surface, a cold front is forecast to move slowly southward across northern Oklahoma and southern Missouri. A dryline should be in place by late afternoon from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma, where a triple point is forecast. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a corridor of instability should develop from northwest Texas into central Oklahoma. Isolated convective initiation will be possible along the northern edge of the instability. Thunderstorm development is also expected to occur further east-northeast into parts of northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Thunderstorm development is likely to continue along parts of the front during the late evening and overnight period. The severe threat for Thursday is highly conditional. The first uncertainty is moisture. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually increase from late afternoon into the evening across the southern Plains. Some models suggest that a small pocket of moderate instability will develop in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma by evening, where MUCAPE could approach 1500 J/kg. This combined with effective shear in the 60 to 70 kt range and steep mid-level lapse rates, would make a hail threat possible. Further to the east-northeast into central and northeastern Oklahoma, surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 60s F. However, instability in this part of Oklahoma is forecast to be less than in areas further southwest. This combined with subsidence, associated with a low-amplitude upper-level ridge, may marginalize any severe threat. If a marginal severe threat does develop, it could extend as far east as southern Missouri where the models are in agreement that convection will develop in the late evening and overnight period. ..Broyles.. 03/09/2021
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