SPC 0830Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0232 AM CST Tue Mar 09 2021

Valid 111200Z - 121200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND OZARKS...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat may develop across parts of the southern
Plains and Ozarks from late Thursday afternoon into the overnight
period.

...Southern Plains/Ozarks...
Southwest mid-level flow will be maintained on Thursday across much
of the southern, central and northeastern U.S. At the surface, a
cold front is forecast to move slowly southward across northern
Oklahoma and southern Missouri. A dryline should be in place by late
afternoon from northwest Texas into western Oklahoma, where a triple
point is forecast. As surface temperatures warm during the day, a
corridor of instability should develop from northwest Texas into
central Oklahoma. Isolated convective initiation will be possible
along the northern edge of the instability. Thunderstorm development
is also expected to occur further east-northeast into parts of
northern Arkansas and southern Missouri. Thunderstorm development is
likely to continue along parts of the front during the late evening
and overnight period.

The severe threat for Thursday is highly conditional. The first
uncertainty is moisture. Low-level moisture is forecast to gradually
increase from late afternoon into the evening across the southern
Plains. Some models suggest that a small pocket of moderate
instability will develop in northwest Texas and southwest Oklahoma
by evening, where MUCAPE could approach 1500 J/kg. This combined
with effective shear in the 60 to 70 kt range and steep mid-level
lapse rates, would make a hail threat possible. Further to the
east-northeast into central and northeastern Oklahoma, surface
dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 60s F. However,
instability in this part of Oklahoma is forecast to be less than in
areas further southwest. This combined with subsidence, associated
with a low-amplitude upper-level ridge, may marginalize any severe
threat. If a marginal severe threat does develop, it could extend as
far east as southern Missouri where the models are in agreement that
convection will develop in the late evening and overnight period.

..Broyles.. 03/09/2021

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