Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CST Tue Mar 09 2021

Valid 121200Z - 171200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 and Saturday/Day 5...
The medium-range models are in decent agreement on Friday, with an
upper-level low in the Desert Southwest. Southwest mid-level flow is
forecast over the southern Rockies and southern Plains. Elevated
thunderstorms may be ongoing at the start of the period in parts of
Oklahoma, Kansas and Missouri. The southwestern U.S. upper-level
trough is forecast to move eastward during the day. In response, a
moist airmass should advect northward into parts of Oklahoma where
60+ surface dewpoints will be possible. A dryline is forecast to
take shape by afternoon across far western Oklahoma and west Texas.
To the east of the dryline, thunderstorms may develop during the
late afternoon and evening along a corridor of instability. Strong
deep-layer shear is forecast which may result in a potential for
supercells. Large hail and wind damage would be the primary threats.
Further to the east from northeastern Oklahoma into southern
Missouri, thunderstorms may also develop during the late afternoon
and evening. Although deep-layer shear may support an isolated
severe threat, the threat may remain marginal due to weak
instability.

On Saturday, the models continue to be in reasonable agreement, with
the upper-level low moving across the Four Corners area. A strong
low-level jet is forecast to develop in the southern Plains as the
exit region a 80 to 100 kt mid-level jet overspreads the southern
High Plains. In response, deep-layer shear will be favorable for
supercells with large hail. The current thinking is that a band of
strong to severe storms will develop from western Oklahoma southward
into northwest Texas Saturday afternoon. This band of storms could
continue to be severe, moving into central Oklahoma and north Texas
during the mid to late evening. All three hazards can not be ruled
out Saturday afternoon and evening.

...Sunday/Day 6 to Tuesday/Day 8...
The models continue to be in reasonably good agreement on Sunday and
there is not too much spread among GEFS members. An upper-level low
is forecast to move into the central High Plains as the mid-level
jet moves across the southern Plains. To the east of the jet, a
squall-line may develop and move into the Ozarks and Arklatex Sunday
afternoon. This squall-line may remain intact across the lower to
mid Mississippi Valley during the overnight period.

On Monday and Tuesday, model solutions diverge. Although a cold
front is expected to move across the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Gulf
Coast states, substantial uncertainty exists concerning the
upper-level level pattern. Strong thunderstorms will be possible
along and near the front but uncertainty is high. This uncertainty
continues into Tuesday due to very large differences among model
solutions.

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