SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0733 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021 Valid 080100Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY... ...SUMMARY... A few severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and overnight across the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds and a brief tornado are possible. ...Lower MS Valley... A line of strong to severe storms currently extends from eastern AR southwestward to the Sabine River. 00Z soundings ahead of these storms show favorable hodographs for severe storms including supercells, with effective SRH around 200 m2/s2. A minor capping inversion also exists around 700 mb. Large-scale lift will decrease after 06Z, but the favorable deep-layer shear with large cross-boundary component and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely allow a severe risk to persist tonight. Damaging wind gusts are most likely, but a tornado will be possible as well as low-level shear remains favorable. For near-term information see mesoscale discussion 329 which expires at 01Z. ...IL into eastern IA... A line of thunderstorms with a history of a few measured severe gusts continues eastward into IL and eastern IA. Given the end of the diurnal cycle, and capping noted on the 00Z ILX sounding, the severe threat with this line has likely peaked, and a gradual downward trend is expected. A few strong to severe gusts remain possible in the short term before the boundary layer stabilizes further. ..Jewell.. 04/08/2021
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