SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0733 PM CDT Wed Apr 07 2021

Valid 080100Z - 081200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PARTS OF THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

...SUMMARY...
A few severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening and
overnight across the lower Mississippi Valley. Damaging winds and a
brief tornado are possible.

...Lower MS Valley...
A line of strong to severe storms currently extends from eastern AR
southwestward to the Sabine River. 00Z soundings ahead of these
storms show favorable hodographs for severe storms including
supercells, with effective SRH around 200 m2/s2. A minor capping
inversion also exists around 700 mb. Large-scale lift will decrease
after 06Z, but the favorable deep-layer shear with large
cross-boundary component and around 1500 J/kg MLCAPE will likely
allow a severe risk to persist tonight. Damaging wind gusts are most
likely, but a tornado will be possible as well as low-level shear
remains favorable. For near-term information see mesoscale
discussion 329 which expires at 01Z.

...IL into eastern IA...
A line of thunderstorms with a history of a few measured severe
gusts continues eastward into IL and eastern IA. Given the end of
the diurnal cycle, and capping noted on the 00Z ILX sounding, the
severe threat with this line has likely peaked, and a gradual
downward trend is expected. A few strong to severe gusts remain
possible in the short term before the boundary layer stabilizes
further.

..Jewell.. 04/08/2021

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