SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST
GULF COAST STATES AND PARTS OF GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
northeast Gulf Coast on Saturday.

...MS/AL/GA/FL...
A mid-level disturbance over the Gulf Coast states, to the south of
a potent mid-level trough over eastern KS/MO, will likely support a
continuation of an MCS across the Gulf Coast during the morning and
perhaps persisting into the afternoon.  A moist and moderately
unstable boundary layer (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong flow, will
favor a risk for damaging winds given the likelihood of a linear
convective mode.  Model guidance (particularly the latest ECMWF)
shows this activity moving east over the northeast Gulf Coast.  The
northern periphery of the severe risk will probably be constrained
by a transition to weaker instability/less moisture farther
north/northeast across northern and eastern parts of GA.

...TN/KY...
As the primary mid-level shortwave trough moves from eastern KS to
northern IN during the period, strong southerly low-level flow will
transport moisture north during the day to the north/east of an MCS
over the Deep South.  A surface low initially over northeast AR will
deepen as it moves to southern Lake Michigan by mid evening. 
Widespread clouds will likely limit the amount of surface heating
during the day as a band of showers/thunderstorms on the northern
portion of an MCS moves north-northeast across TN during the
morning.  A risk for isolated damaging gusts could continue into the
start of the day-3 period (Saturday morning) and rejuvenate during
the day as the activity spreads northeast towards the OH River. 
However, instability will likely remain weak owing to the
aforementioned concern with heating.  This activity will likely
weaken by early evening across parts of the OH Valley.

..Smith.. 04/08/2021

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