SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021 Valid 101200Z - 111200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST STATES AND PARTS OF GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the northeast Gulf Coast on Saturday. ...MS/AL/GA/FL... A mid-level disturbance over the Gulf Coast states, to the south of a potent mid-level trough over eastern KS/MO, will likely support a continuation of an MCS across the Gulf Coast during the morning and perhaps persisting into the afternoon. A moist and moderately unstable boundary layer (1000 J/kg MLCAPE) and strong flow, will favor a risk for damaging winds given the likelihood of a linear convective mode. Model guidance (particularly the latest ECMWF) shows this activity moving east over the northeast Gulf Coast. The northern periphery of the severe risk will probably be constrained by a transition to weaker instability/less moisture farther north/northeast across northern and eastern parts of GA. ...TN/KY... As the primary mid-level shortwave trough moves from eastern KS to northern IN during the period, strong southerly low-level flow will transport moisture north during the day to the north/east of an MCS over the Deep South. A surface low initially over northeast AR will deepen as it moves to southern Lake Michigan by mid evening. Widespread clouds will likely limit the amount of surface heating during the day as a band of showers/thunderstorms on the northern portion of an MCS moves north-northeast across TN during the morning. A risk for isolated damaging gusts could continue into the start of the day-3 period (Saturday morning) and rejuvenate during the day as the activity spreads northeast towards the OH River. However, instability will likely remain weak owing to the aforementioned concern with heating. This activity will likely weaken by early evening across parts of the OH Valley. ..Smith.. 04/08/2021
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