SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021 Valid 081630Z - 091200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND NORTHEAST TENNESSEE... ...SUMMARY... Locally damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening with storms over parts of Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee. ...IN/OH/KY/TN... Morning water vapor loop shows an intense and negatively tilted shortwave trough rotating into the lower OH and TN valleys. Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front is surging eastward into central KY and middle TN. Partial clearing has begun to occur ahead of the front, where dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s are present. This will lead to an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) for a few robust and fast-moving thunderstorms this afternoon. Strong midlevel drying associated with the shortwave trough, linear forcing along the front, and sufficient deep-layer shear will promote linear/bowing structures capable of gusty and locally damaging wind gusts. Therefore have added a SLGT risk for this region. ...Arklatex region... Low level moisture is returning northward across central TX today, with afternoon dewpoint values in the upper 50s and lower 60s expected to near the Red River this evening. Strengthening southwesterly low-level winds around dusk may lead to the development a isolated thunderstorms. Several CAM solutions indicate this threat, although there is disagreement on placement of storms. Have added a small MRGL risk to account for this potential. Large hail appears to be the main concern if storms can develop. ..Hart.. 04/08/2021
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