SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Thu Apr 08 2021

Valid 081630Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST OHIO...CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
NORTHEAST TENNESSEE...

...SUMMARY...
Locally damaging wind gusts are possible this afternoon and evening
with storms over parts of Indiana, Ohio, Kentucky, and Tennessee.

...IN/OH/KY/TN...
Morning water vapor loop shows an intense and negatively tilted
shortwave trough rotating into the lower OH and TN valleys. 
Meanwhile at the surface, a cold front is surging eastward into
central KY and middle TN.  Partial clearing has begun to occur ahead
of the front, where dewpoints in the mid/upper 50s are present. 
This will lead to an axis of sufficient MLCAPE (500-1000 J/kg) for a
few robust and fast-moving thunderstorms this afternoon.  Strong
midlevel drying associated with the shortwave trough, linear forcing
along the front, and sufficient deep-layer shear will promote
linear/bowing structures capable of gusty and locally damaging wind
gusts.  Therefore have added a SLGT risk for this region.

...Arklatex region...
Low level moisture is returning northward across central TX today,
with afternoon dewpoint values in the upper 50s and lower 60s
expected to near the Red River this evening.  Strengthening
southwesterly low-level winds around dusk may lead to the
development a isolated thunderstorms.  Several CAM solutions
indicate this threat, although there is disagreement on placement of
storms.  Have added a small MRGL risk to account for this potential.
Large hail appears to be the main concern if storms can develop.

..Hart.. 04/08/2021

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