SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0755 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021 Valid 150100Z - 151200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF WESTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN... ...SUMMARY... The threat for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will remain for another hour or two across the Mid Atlantic. Through tonight, some severe hail may accompany any of the stronger storms that manage to form across parts of Texas and the Gulf Coastal Plain. ...01Z Update... A line of semi-discrete transient supercells persists along the NC/VA border, with a recent uptick in intensity noted as the storms interact with a sea-breeze boundary while ingesting locally higher cross-wise vorticity. However, the storms are quickly moving into a cooler, more stable environment. While a Marginal remains in place for parts of the coastal Mid Atlantic, this threat should only persist for another hour or so. Please see MCD 0386 for more details regarding the short-term threat. With the loss of diurnal heating, and with deep-layer ascent displaced north of the Gulf Coastal Plain, the Slight risk was removed given anticipated lesser severe coverage across the area. Nonetheless, modest mid-level lapse rates remain in place, with a reservoir of much steeper (9.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates meandering eastward, as evident via the 00Z CRP observed sounding. Any storms that manage to develop could produce severe hail. A Marginal risk was maintained to address this highly conditional threat. Farther west across the TX Big Bend area northward, a somewhat lesser conditional risk for storm initiation is in place, mainly for the 09-12Z period. In this time frame, an upper trough will begin to impinge on the southern High Plains, prompting a low-level mass response in the form of a southeasterly 20-30kt 850 mb jet across west TX. Relatively deeper moisture advecting northward beneath the aforementioned very steep low-level lapse rates will promote up to 1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. The warm-air advection regime will also promote adequate lift for nocturnal elevated convective initiation, as hinted at by some of the latest high-resolution model guidance. Given 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, any storms that mature will have the potential to produce severe hail, warranting the introduction of a Marginal risk. ..Squitieri.. 04/15/2021
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