SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0755 PM CDT Wed Apr 14 2021

Valid 150100Z - 151200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PORTIONS OF
WESTERN TEXAS AND THE WESTERN TO CENTRAL GULF COASTAL PLAIN...

...SUMMARY...
The threat for large hail and isolated damaging wind gusts will
remain for another hour or two across the Mid Atlantic. Through
tonight, some severe hail may accompany any of the stronger storms
that manage to form across parts of Texas and the Gulf Coastal
Plain.

...01Z Update...
A line of semi-discrete transient supercells persists along the
NC/VA border, with a recent uptick in intensity noted as the storms
interact with a sea-breeze boundary while ingesting locally higher
cross-wise vorticity. However, the storms are quickly moving into a
cooler, more stable environment. While a Marginal remains in place
for parts of the coastal Mid Atlantic, this threat should only
persist for another hour or so. Please see MCD 0386 for more details
regarding the short-term threat.

With the loss of diurnal heating, and with deep-layer ascent
displaced north of the Gulf Coastal Plain, the Slight risk was
removed given anticipated lesser severe coverage across the area.
Nonetheless, modest mid-level lapse rates remain in place, with a
reservoir of much steeper (9.5 C/km) mid-level lapse rates
meandering eastward, as evident via the 00Z CRP observed sounding.
Any storms that manage to develop could produce severe hail. A
Marginal risk was maintained to address this highly conditional
threat.

Farther west across the TX Big Bend area northward, a somewhat
lesser conditional risk for storm initiation is in place, mainly for
the 09-12Z period. In this time frame, an upper trough will begin to
impinge on the southern High Plains, prompting a low-level mass
response in the form of a southeasterly 20-30kt 850 mb jet across
west TX. Relatively deeper moisture advecting northward beneath the
aforementioned very steep low-level lapse rates will promote up to
1000-1500 J/kg MUCAPE. The warm-air advection regime will also
promote adequate lift for nocturnal elevated convective initiation,
as hinted at by some of the latest high-resolution model guidance.
Given 50+ kts of effective bulk shear, any storms that mature will
have the potential to produce severe hail, warranting the
introduction of a Marginal risk.

..Squitieri.. 04/15/2021

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