SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0222 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Valid 201200Z - 211200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible on Tuesday across portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. ...Florida Peninsula... Within large-scale upper troughing across much of the central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave trough should move across parts of the Southeast on Tuesday. A persistent surface boundary across the central FL Peninsula may attempt to lift northward as a warm front as a weak low develops from the northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic through the period. Convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning to the north of the surface boundary in a modest low-level warm advection regime. It remains somewhat uncertain how far north the front will advance across the northern/central FL Peninsula through the day, and this boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to an isolated severe threat. With a moist low-level airmass remaining in place across the central/southern FL Peninsula, it will not take much diurnal heating to foster weak to locally moderate instability by Tuesday afternoon. Both low and mid-level wind fields are forecast to strengthen through the day, supporting strong deep-layer shear. Organized severe thunderstorms posing mainly an isolated large hail and damaging wind threat may occur along/south of the front as the glancing influence of large-scale ascent with the shortwave trough overspreads this region. ..Gleason.. 04/18/2021
There’s more click here.