SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0222 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Valid 201200Z - 211200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe storms appear possible on Tuesday across
portions of the central and southern Florida Peninsula.

...Florida Peninsula...
Within large-scale upper troughing across much of the
central/eastern CONUS, a low-amplitude shortwave trough should move
across parts of the Southeast on Tuesday. A persistent surface
boundary across the central FL Peninsula may attempt to lift
northward as a warm front as a weak low develops from the
northeastern Gulf of Mexico to the western Atlantic through the
period. Convection may be ongoing Tuesday morning to the north of
the surface boundary in a modest low-level warm advection regime. It
remains somewhat uncertain how far north the front will advance
across the northern/central FL Peninsula through the day, and this
boundary will likely serve as the northern limit to an isolated
severe threat. With a moist low-level airmass remaining in place
across the central/southern FL Peninsula, it will not take much
diurnal heating to foster weak to locally moderate instability by
Tuesday afternoon. Both low and mid-level wind fields are forecast
to strengthen through the day, supporting strong deep-layer shear.
Organized severe thunderstorms posing mainly an isolated large hail
and damaging wind threat may occur along/south of the front as the
glancing influence of large-scale ascent with the shortwave trough
overspreads this region.

..Gleason.. 04/18/2021

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