SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0749 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Valid 181300Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop across parts of the northern and central Florida Peninsula, mainly late this afternoon through this evening. ...Northern/central FL Peninsula... Small to marginally severe hail may accompany elevated thunderstorms this morning across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. This convection should persist along the periphery of elevated buoyancy amid strong speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer. A quasi-stationary front will continue to gradually oscillate across central FL, with more robust boundary-layer heating expected today over the southern half of the peninsula. The 12Z Tampa sounding suggests that as surface temperature warm through the 80s, a plume of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg should become established. With modest westerly low-level flow, convergence along the front will generally remain weak. Late afternoon surface-based thunderstorm development may remain tied to the eastern sea breeze near the Space Coast where around 40-kt effective shear may prove favorable for a supercell capable of severe hail and damaging winds. Otherwise, convection should spread towards the west-central coast this evening as a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the northwest Gulf rapidly progresses east along the frontal zone. This may result in a lingering threat for a few strong wind gusts and marginally severe hail before ending by midnight. ..Grams/Broyles.. 04/18/2021
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