SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0749 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Valid 181300Z - 191200Z


Isolated large hail and damaging winds may develop across parts of
the northern and central Florida Peninsula, mainly late this
afternoon through this evening.

...Northern/central FL Peninsula...
Small to marginally severe hail may accompany elevated thunderstorms
this morning across the northern portion of the FL Peninsula. This
convection should persist along the periphery of elevated buoyancy
amid strong speed shear through the cloud-bearing layer. 

A quasi-stationary front will continue to gradually oscillate across
central FL, with more robust boundary-layer heating expected today
over the southern half of the peninsula. The 12Z Tampa sounding
suggests that as surface temperature warm through the 80s, a plume
of moderate MLCAPE from 1000-1500 J/kg should become established.
With modest westerly low-level flow, convergence along the front
will generally remain weak. Late afternoon surface-based
thunderstorm development may remain tied to the eastern sea breeze
near the Space Coast where around 40-kt effective shear may prove
favorable for a supercell capable of severe hail and damaging winds.
Otherwise, convection should spread towards the west-central coast
this evening as a low-amplitude shortwave impulse over the northwest
Gulf rapidly progresses east along the frontal zone. This may result
in a lingering threat for a few strong wind gusts and marginally
severe hail before ending by midnight.

..Grams/Broyles.. 04/18/2021

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