SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated large hail and damaging winds may occur across parts of the
northern and central Florida Peninsula, mainly late this afternoon
through evening.

...Northern/central Florida Peninsula...
In the wake of earlier severe storms across the north-central
Florida Peninsula including north of Daytona Beach, the
nearby/reinforced west-east surface boundary should remain
quasi-stationary or perhaps shift slightly northward through the
afternoon. Related to ongoing storms over the central Gulf of
Mexico, the next upstream shortwave trough-related ascent should
approach the Florida Peninsula by late afternoon/early evening. A
storm or two could develop this afternoon near the surface boundary
and/or just south of it over the eastern immediate interior, aided
by the east coast sea breeze. However, a somewhat greater likelihood
of storm development and coverage should occur late this afternoon
into evening across the west half of the Peninsula along the front
and to its south with inland-moving storms from the Gulf of Mexico.

Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (12Z Tampa observed sounding)
and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in the presence of 40 kt effective shear
would support severe storms potentially including a few supercells.
Damaging winds and severe hail would be the primary risks.

..Guyer/Wendt.. 04/18/2021

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