SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1124 AM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Valid 181630Z - 191200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated large hail and damaging winds may occur across parts of the northern and central Florida Peninsula, mainly late this afternoon through evening. ...Northern/central Florida Peninsula... In the wake of earlier severe storms across the north-central Florida Peninsula including north of Daytona Beach, the nearby/reinforced west-east surface boundary should remain quasi-stationary or perhaps shift slightly northward through the afternoon. Related to ongoing storms over the central Gulf of Mexico, the next upstream shortwave trough-related ascent should approach the Florida Peninsula by late afternoon/early evening. A storm or two could develop this afternoon near the surface boundary and/or just south of it over the eastern immediate interior, aided by the east coast sea breeze. However, a somewhat greater likelihood of storm development and coverage should occur late this afternoon into evening across the west half of the Peninsula along the front and to its south with inland-moving storms from the Gulf of Mexico. Relatively steep mid-level lapse rates (12Z Tampa observed sounding) and 1000-1500 J/kg MLCAPE in the presence of 40 kt effective shear would support severe storms potentially including a few supercells. Damaging winds and severe hail would be the primary risks. ..Guyer/Wendt.. 04/18/2021
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