SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021 Valid 191200Z - 201200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA... ...SUMMARY... Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Hail and strong/gusty winds should be the main threats. ...Synopsis... A pair of mid-level vorticity maxima, located over the Ozarks and lower MO Valley midday Sunday, will transition to a single mid-level trough and move from the southern Appalachians to the western Atlantic during the day-2 period. A weak surface low in response to the mid-level disturbance, will move from eastern NC east into the western Atlantic. An attendant cold front will push southward across the northern part of the FL Peninsula before stalling overnight near the I-4 corridor. Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be relegated to parts of the FL Peninsula during the day. Early day widely scattered showers/thunderstorms are possible, especially near the Tampa Bay vicinity and eventually spreading east across the Peninsula. Gradual destabilization will occur across the central part of the Peninsula with heating/near 70 deg surface dewpoints contributing to moderate instability. Seasonably strong 850-700 mb flow (35-40 kt) may aid in a few multicells and/or clusters being capable of a localized threat for wind damage. The strongest cores could yield a hail risk as well. This activity will weaken by early evening as instability diminishes. ..Smith.. 04/18/2021
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