SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1225 PM CDT Sun Apr 18 2021

Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FL PENINSULA...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible on Monday
across parts of the central and southern Florida Peninsula. Hail and
strong/gusty winds should be the main threats.

...Synopsis...
A pair of mid-level vorticity maxima, located over the Ozarks and
lower MO Valley midday Sunday, will transition to a single mid-level
trough and move from the southern Appalachians to the western
Atlantic during the day-2 period.  A weak surface low in response to
the mid-level disturbance, will move from eastern NC east into the
western Atlantic.  An attendant cold front will push southward
across the northern part of the FL Peninsula before stalling
overnight near the I-4 corridor.  

Strong to severe thunderstorm potential will be relegated to parts
of the FL Peninsula during the day.  Early day widely scattered
showers/thunderstorms are possible, especially near the Tampa Bay
vicinity and eventually spreading east across the Peninsula. 
Gradual destabilization will occur across the central part of the
Peninsula with heating/near 70 deg surface dewpoints contributing to
moderate instability.  Seasonably strong 850-700 mb flow (35-40 kt)
may aid in a few multicells and/or clusters being capable of a
localized threat for wind damage.  The strongest cores could yield a
hail risk as well.  This activity will weaken by early evening as
instability diminishes.

..Smith.. 04/18/2021

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