SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0722 AM CDT Thu Apr 22 2021 Valid 221300Z - 231200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... The risk for severe thunderstorms appears negligible across the contiguous U.S. through tonight. ...Discussion... Two areas of more confident thunder potential are apparent, mainly this afternoon into early evening. First, a shortwave impulse moving southeast from British Columbia in conjunction with a steep low to mid-level lapse rate environment will be supportive of isolated thunderstorms across the northern Intermountain West. The other is downstream of a positive-tilt upper trough over the Southwest. Isolated thunderstorms are possible from northern AZ to CO. Less confident thunder potential is apparent over the southern Sierra NV mountains and KS to the southern Great Plains. For the latter region, a stout EML should largely inhibit thunderstorm development until the D2 period. Highly elevated parcels with scant buoyancy might support low-probability thunder along the edge of this stout EML across the southern KS vicinity towards the end of the period. ..Grams.. 04/22/2021
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