SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0759 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021

Valid 040100Z - 041200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN
OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO
VALLEY...

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA...

...SUMMARY...
Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely this evening through
tonight from parts of north-central Texas northeastward across the
northern half of Arkansas and into the lower Ohio Valley.  Very
large hail is possible mainly this evening over parts of Texas and
Oklahoma.  The risk for intense severe gusts will increase this
evening into the overnight from eastern Oklahoma to western
Kentucky.

...OK-TX dryline northeast to the lower OH Valley...
Severe thunderstorms this evening near the dryline from
south-central TX northward into southeast OK are residing in a
reservoir of rich low-level moisture and a very unstable airmass
(3500 J/kg MLCAPE observed on the 7pm Fort Worth, TX raob). 
Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the
southern High Plains and this feature will continue to move east
towards the OK/TX I-35 corridor by daybreak Tuesday.  A belt of
southwesterly 500 mb flow is forecast to strengthen this evening and
into the overnight across the Red River Valley into southeast MO/AR.
 Upscale growth into a severe MCS is forecast with the transition
from primarily a large-hail threat/tornado risk to a severe
gust/tornado risk overnight.  Farther south along the dryline,
boundary layer cooling will lead to increasing convective inhibition
with time and gradual storm weakening by late evening.

...Parts of the TX Big Country...
Strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent will overspread this
region this evening and likely maintain a severe risk for the next
several hours across the TX Big Country.  A cluster of
quasi-discrete thunderstorms immediately north of a surface front
will likely continue to ingest moist/unstable parcels above the
surface through the evening hours and pose a large to very large
hail risk.  

...Central AL east to the SC coast...
Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue through the mid evening
from central AL east to the SC Coast within a weak
warm-air-advection regime.  A moist and moderately unstable
environment may act to sustain organized storm structures with a
localized hail/wind risk through 03 UTC.  Boundary-layer cooling
will promote storm weakening and a cessation of the severe risk by
late evening.

..Smith.. 05/04/2021

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