SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0759 PM CDT Mon May 03 2021 Valid 040100Z - 041200Z ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTH-CENTRAL TX INTO THE OZARKS AND LOWER OHIO VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF CENTRAL ALABAMA AND WEST-CENTRAL GEORGIA... ...SUMMARY... Scattered severe thunderstorms are likely this evening through tonight from parts of north-central Texas northeastward across the northern half of Arkansas and into the lower Ohio Valley. Very large hail is possible mainly this evening over parts of Texas and Oklahoma. The risk for intense severe gusts will increase this evening into the overnight from eastern Oklahoma to western Kentucky. ...OK-TX dryline northeast to the lower OH Valley... Severe thunderstorms this evening near the dryline from south-central TX northward into southeast OK are residing in a reservoir of rich low-level moisture and a very unstable airmass (3500 J/kg MLCAPE observed on the 7pm Fort Worth, TX raob). Water-vapor imagery shows a mid-level shortwave trough over the southern High Plains and this feature will continue to move east towards the OK/TX I-35 corridor by daybreak Tuesday. A belt of southwesterly 500 mb flow is forecast to strengthen this evening and into the overnight across the Red River Valley into southeast MO/AR. Upscale growth into a severe MCS is forecast with the transition from primarily a large-hail threat/tornado risk to a severe gust/tornado risk overnight. Farther south along the dryline, boundary layer cooling will lead to increasing convective inhibition with time and gradual storm weakening by late evening. ...Parts of the TX Big Country... Strengthening mid-level forcing for ascent will overspread this region this evening and likely maintain a severe risk for the next several hours across the TX Big Country. A cluster of quasi-discrete thunderstorms immediately north of a surface front will likely continue to ingest moist/unstable parcels above the surface through the evening hours and pose a large to very large hail risk. ...Central AL east to the SC coast... Strong to severe thunderstorms may continue through the mid evening from central AL east to the SC Coast within a weak warm-air-advection regime. A moist and moderately unstable environment may act to sustain organized storm structures with a localized hail/wind risk through 03 UTC. Boundary-layer cooling will promote storm weakening and a cessation of the severe risk by late evening. ..Smith.. 05/04/2021
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