Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 AM CDT Tue May 04 2021

Valid 071200Z - 121200Z

Models indicate that blocking mid-level ridging may linger, but it
may redevelop east of the Labrador Sea into the southern Greenland
vicinity during this period.  Coincidingly, a deep mid-level closed
low appears likely to redevelop eastward, from near James Bay into
areas near/north of the Canadian Maritmes, with initially amplified
large-scale troughing to its south de-amplifying and while shifting
northeastward out of the eastern U.S.  As this occurs, a belt of
westerlies emanating from the northern mid-latitude Pacific may
become more prominent across and east of the Rockies.

Latest medium-range guidance now appears much lower in amplitude
with mid-level troughing developing across the Intermountain West
this weekend, before progressing east of the Rockies, as well as
with ridging building north of a subtropical high center developing
near the Yucatan peninsula.  However, in association with the
progression of the troughing, there remains at least some potential
for severe thunderstorm development this coming weekend into early
next week across parts of the central and southern Great Plains into
the lower Mississippi Valley and Gulf Coast states.  

This may be focused near the intersection of a developing frontal
cyclone and dryline across the central Great Plains on Saturday,
when lapse rates will be steep, but CAPE may still be a bit modest. 
Boundary-layer moisture return off the Gulf may become supportive of
more substantive CAPE on Sunday, when the focus for strongest
convection begins to become a bit more unclear.  It is possible that
this may become confined to portions of central Texas into the Red
River vicinity, before spreading into portions of the western and
central Gulf states on Monday, ahead of the southward advancing
front.  Due to sizable uncertainties, severe weather probabilities
are maintained at below 15 percent.

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