SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook
Day 3 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021 Valid 231200Z - 241200Z ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST... ...SUMMARY... Organized severe thunderstorms currently appear unlikely across the contiguous United States on Wednesday. ...Synopsis and Discussion... A closed upper low should remain off the coast of northern CA on Wednesday, while downstream upper ridging persists over much of the central/southern Rockies and High Plains. Farther north, a shortwave trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies over Canada should move southeastward towards the northern Plains by Wednesday evening. Rich low-level moisture is forecast to continue advecting northward across much of the southern/central Plains to the east of a lee trough/dryline. There is considerable uncertainty regarding the strength of the cap that will be present over the warm sector, and upper ridging over the Rockies and adjacent High Plains will probably tend to suppress convective development across the warm sector through peak afternoon heating. Still, some guidance suggests storms may eventually form Wednesday night across parts of the central Plains and/or Midwest as a southerly low-level jet strengthens. If these storms were to develop, then an isolated severe threat may exist given the presence of sufficient deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates supporting moderate to strong elevated instability. However, this potential currently appears too uncertain/conditional to include severe probabilities. ..Gleason.. 06/21/2021
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