SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0228 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Valid 231200Z - 241200Z

...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

...SUMMARY...
Organized severe thunderstorms currently appear unlikely across the
contiguous United States on Wednesday.

...Synopsis and Discussion...
A closed upper low should remain off the coast of northern CA on
Wednesday, while downstream upper ridging persists over much of the
central/southern Rockies and High Plains. Farther north, a shortwave
trough embedded within the mid-level westerlies over Canada should
move southeastward towards the northern Plains by Wednesday evening.
Rich low-level moisture is forecast to continue advecting northward
across much of the southern/central Plains to the east of a lee
trough/dryline.

There is considerable uncertainty regarding the strength of the cap
that will be present over the warm sector, and upper ridging over
the Rockies and adjacent High Plains will probably tend to suppress
convective development across the warm sector through peak afternoon
heating. Still, some guidance suggests storms may eventually form
Wednesday night across parts of the central Plains and/or Midwest as
a southerly low-level jet strengthens. If these storms were to
develop, then an isolated severe threat may exist given the presence
of sufficient deep-layer shear and steep mid-level lapse rates
supporting moderate to strong elevated instability. However, this
potential currently appears too uncertain/conditional to include
severe probabilities.

..Gleason.. 06/21/2021

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