Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0356 AM CDT Mon Jun 21 2021

Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

...DISCUSSION...
An upper trough should gradually amplify over the north-central
states late this week into the upcoming weekend. Multiple
low-amplitude mid-level perturbations should move eastward across
the northern/central Plains to the Midwest in the same time frame,
encouraging convective development each day. An EML emanating from
the Rockies and High Plains should extend eastward into parts of the
Upper Midwest on Day 4/Thursday. This EML coupled with increasing
low-level moisture and diurnal heating should support moderate to
perhaps locally strong instability ahead of a front which should be
located from parts of the northern/central Plains to the Upper
Midwest by Thursday afternoon. At least some severe risk is evident
across these regions along/ahead of the front as deep-layer shear
appears adequate. But, there is still considerable uncertainty
regarding the placement of convective development. Predictability
remains too low at this time to include a 15% severe area across any
portions of the central Plains or Upper Midwest for Thursday, but
severe probabilities will likely be needed in a later outlook.

An isolated severe threat may continue on Day 5/Friday across parts
of the mid MS Valley and Midwest as the upper trough becomes
established over the north-central CONUS. However, there may be
considerable convection ongoing Friday morning, which limits
confidence on where the greatest instability will exist ahead of a
front. A lingering threat for organized severe storms may persist
this upcoming weekend across parts the southern Plains to the OH
Valley, but predictability remains low.

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