SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0738 PM CDT Mon Jul 26 2021

Valid 270100Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF NORTHERN MINNESOTA INTO NORTHWEST WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Supercells and bowing structures with large hail and damaging winds
are expected overnight from eastern North Dakota into northern
Wisconsin.

...ND to WI...

Weak mid-level disturbance appears to be affecting northern MN this
evening. This feature will track southeast toward northern Lake MI
overnight with mid-level height rises expected in its wake across
the upper MS Valley. Several clusters of severe thunderstorms have
evolved across northern MN and this activity is propagating
southeast at 30-35kt toward the western portions of Lake
Superior/northwestern WI. Latest thinking is this convection will
continue to grow upscale as a reservoir of buoyancy currently
extends ahead of this activity downstream across northern WI. Severe
damaging winds and large hail are likely with this evolving complex
of storms.

Across eastern ND, strong surface heating allowed temperatures to
rise well into the 90s to near 100F ahead of the surface low.
Isolated thunderstorms have developed along the boundary west of JMS
but updrafts are currently struggling. It's not entirely clear how
much additional convection will develop along the front, but a very
unstable air mass does exist across eastern ND/western MN. Any
storms that mature in this environment may produce damaging
winds/hail.

..Darrow.. 07/27/2021

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