SPC 0730Z Day 3 Outlook

Day 3 Outlook Image

Day 3 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0219 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Valid 291200Z - 301200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...OHIO
VALLEY...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AND CENTRAL
ROCKIES...

...SUMMARY...
A marginal severe threat will be possible on Thursday from parts of
the lower Missouri Valley eastward into the central Appalachians. A
marginal severe threat will also be possible in parts of the central
High Plains and central Rockies.

...Lower Missouri Valley/Mid Mississippi Valley/Ohio Valley/Central
Appalachians...
A large area of high pressure will remain in place on Thursday from
the western U.S. southeastward into the lower Mississippi Valley. At
the surface, a cold front is forecast to advance southward across
the central U.S. The front should be positioned from northern
Missouri eastward to the Ohio Valley by midday. As surface
temperatures warm, moderate to strong instability will likely
develop along and to the south of the front. Convective initiation
is forecast near the front during the afternoon, with thunderstorms
developing and moving south-southeastward across the region. The
instability combined with moderate deep-layer shear evident on
forecast soundings will be favorable for a marginal severe threat.
The stronger thunderstorms may be capable of producing isolated wind
damage during the late afternoon and early evening, mainly in areas
where low-level lapse rates become very steep. An upgrade to slight
risk may become necessary across parts of the lower Ohio Valley if
the models show run-to-run consistency over the next day or so.

...Central High Plains...
A large area of high pressure will remain across the western and
south-central U.S. on Thursday, as a cold front moves southward
across the central Plains. A corridor of moderate instability
oriented from west-northwest to east-southeast will likely be in
place by afternoon. Scattered convection is forecast to initiate in
the higher terrain of southeast Wyoming and northeastern Colorado
during the afternoon. Other more isolated storms could initiate
further to the east near the front across southern Nebraska. Model
forecasts across the central High Plains suggest that deep-layer
shear will be strong enough for a marginal wind-damage threat. The
wind-damage threat will likely be the greatest along the leading
edge of short line segments. Hail could also occur with cells that
rotate in areas where instability becomes the strongest.

..Broyles.. 07/27/2021

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