Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0319 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Valid 301200Z - 041200Z ...DISCUSSION... ...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6... The medium-range models keep a large area of high pressure across the central and southern U.S. this weekend. Northwest mid-level flow will be in place from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. At the surface, a moist airmass should be in place on Friday from the mid Missouri Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians. Thunderstorms that develop on the northwestern edge of the instability corridor Friday afternoon could obtain an isolated severe threat. On Saturday and Sunday, a front is forecast to move southeastward across the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley. The front will likely be a focus for convective initiation during the afternoon. An isolated severe threat could again develop along and to the south of the front. Will not outlook a threat area at this time due to uncertainties concerning the mesoscale setup. ...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8... On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the south-central U.S. as a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern becomes more amplified across the eastern U.S. The front is forecast to be located from the Ozarks into the southern Appalachians on Monday and from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday. Thunderstorm development will be possible along and south of the front each afternoon. The chance for an isolated severe threat will be greatest in areas where instability become maximized. However, uncertainties concerning the distribution of instability are substantial at this range.
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