Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0319 AM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Valid 301200Z - 041200Z

...DISCUSSION...
...Friday/Day 4 to Sunday/Day 6...
The medium-range models keep a large area of high pressure across
the central and southern U.S. this weekend. Northwest mid-level flow
will be in place from the Great Lakes to the Northeast. At the
surface, a moist airmass should be in place on Friday from the mid
Missouri Valley southeastward into the southern Appalachians.
Thunderstorms that develop on the northwestern edge of the
instability corridor Friday afternoon could obtain an isolated
severe threat. On Saturday and Sunday, a front is forecast to move
southeastward across the central Plains and mid Mississippi Valley.
The front will likely be a focus for convective initiation during
the afternoon. An isolated severe threat could again develop along
and to the south of the front. Will not outlook a threat area at
this time due to uncertainties concerning the mesoscale setup.

...Monday/Day 7 and Tuesday/Day 8...
On Monday, the cold front is forecast to move southeastward into the
south-central U.S. as a cyclonic mid-level flow pattern becomes more
amplified across the eastern U.S. The front is forecast to be
located from the Ozarks into the southern Appalachians on Monday and
from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley on Tuesday.
Thunderstorm development will be possible along and south of the
front each afternoon. The chance for an isolated severe threat will
be greatest in areas where instability become maximized. However,
uncertainties concerning the distribution of instability are
substantial at this range.

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