SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook

Day 1 Outlook Image

Day 1 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0758 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021

Valid 280100Z - 281200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHEAST IA TONIGHT...

...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight over southeast Minnesota
into southern Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. Isolated very large hail
and damaging gusts will be the main hazards with storms tonight.

...MN/WI/IA...

The Slight risk has been adjusted with the 01z update to account for
current trends in observational data. Visible satellite indicates an
area of increasingly agitated CU across southeast MN into northeast
IA along a weak surface boundary/area of convergence. The 00z RAOB
from MSP indicates an environment capable of fostering intense cells
with extreme instability, steep mid- and low-level lapse rates and
favorable vertical shear present. CAMs (specifically the HRRR)
remain consistent in developing isolated to scattered cells along
the surface boundary this evening, with some potential for upward
development as the cluster shifts south/southeast. Very large hail
and damaging gusts will be possible with any activity that develops.
Some low-end tornado potential also exists near the surface
boundary, and a 2% tornado probability has been included. For more
details on short-term severe potential, reference MCD 1368.

...New England...

The severe threat has rapidly decreased this evening as convection
has weakened and/or is moving offshore. While some gusty winds could
continue for another hour or so, severe storms are no longer
expected and probs have been removed.

..Leitman.. 07/28/2021

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