SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
Day 1 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0758 PM CDT Tue Jul 27 2021 Valid 280100Z - 281200Z ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MN...SOUTHERN WI AND NORTHEAST IA TONIGHT... ...SUMMARY... Severe thunderstorms are possible tonight over southeast Minnesota into southern Wisconsin and northeast Iowa. Isolated very large hail and damaging gusts will be the main hazards with storms tonight. ...MN/WI/IA... The Slight risk has been adjusted with the 01z update to account for current trends in observational data. Visible satellite indicates an area of increasingly agitated CU across southeast MN into northeast IA along a weak surface boundary/area of convergence. The 00z RAOB from MSP indicates an environment capable of fostering intense cells with extreme instability, steep mid- and low-level lapse rates and favorable vertical shear present. CAMs (specifically the HRRR) remain consistent in developing isolated to scattered cells along the surface boundary this evening, with some potential for upward development as the cluster shifts south/southeast. Very large hail and damaging gusts will be possible with any activity that develops. Some low-end tornado potential also exists near the surface boundary, and a 2% tornado probability has been included. For more details on short-term severe potential, reference MCD 1368. ...New England... The severe threat has rapidly decreased this evening as convection has weakened and/or is moving offshore. While some gusty winds could continue for another hour or so, severe storms are no longer expected and probs have been removed. ..Leitman.. 07/28/2021
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