SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook

Day 2 Outlook Image

Day 2 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021

Valid 311200Z - 011200Z

...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS
EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN...

...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday centered
over Missouri and Wisconsin.

...Synopsis...
A broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the
northeastern quarter of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One
disturbance is forecast to move from the mid MS Valley to KY/WV by
early evening.  A cold front will progress southward across KS and
much of MO during the day with the eastern portion of the frontal
zone becoming stationary over the lower OH Valley.  Farther north, a
series of weak disturbances will move southeastward across the
western Great Lakes during the period.  A surface trough will move
southward across the western Great Lakes and focus
shower/thunderstorm development during the afternoon/early evening.

...MO and Vicinity...
Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across
the lower MO Valley.  A threat for strong to locally severe storms
may accompany this thunderstorm activity during the morning as
warm/moist advection weakens during the morning.  It seems plausible
additional storms will preferentially develop on the leading edge of
earlier-day outflow, primarily from midday onward.  Modest flow
fields will favor southeastward-moving storms with an isolated risk
for damaging gusts.  Isolated large hail could accompany the
strongest updrafts.  

...WI and Vicinity...
Lapse rates will steepen throughout the day with weak surface
convergence and low 60s F dewpoints. MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg may
develop, beneath northwest flow aloft.  Scattered storms are
forecast after 21Z from eastern MN across WI and into Lower MI, with
around 40 kt deep-layer shear. This may favor cellular storm mode
capable of marginal hail or strong/damaging gusts.  The activity
will likely diminish by late evening as instability wanes.

..Smith.. 07/30/2021

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