SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1222 PM CDT Fri Jul 30 2021 Valid 311200Z - 011200Z ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EASTERN KANSAS EAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY...AND PARTS OF WISCONSIN... ...SUMMARY... Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible Saturday centered over Missouri and Wisconsin. ...Synopsis... A broad region of cyclonic flow aloft will remain over the northeastern quarter of the CONUS, with various embedded waves. One disturbance is forecast to move from the mid MS Valley to KY/WV by early evening. A cold front will progress southward across KS and much of MO during the day with the eastern portion of the frontal zone becoming stationary over the lower OH Valley. Farther north, a series of weak disturbances will move southeastward across the western Great Lakes during the period. A surface trough will move southward across the western Great Lakes and focus shower/thunderstorm development during the afternoon/early evening. ...MO and Vicinity... Showers/thunderstorms will likely be ongoing Saturday morning across the lower MO Valley. A threat for strong to locally severe storms may accompany this thunderstorm activity during the morning as warm/moist advection weakens during the morning. It seems plausible additional storms will preferentially develop on the leading edge of earlier-day outflow, primarily from midday onward. Modest flow fields will favor southeastward-moving storms with an isolated risk for damaging gusts. Isolated large hail could accompany the strongest updrafts. ...WI and Vicinity... Lapse rates will steepen throughout the day with weak surface convergence and low 60s F dewpoints. MLCAPE up to 1000 J/kg may develop, beneath northwest flow aloft. Scattered storms are forecast after 21Z from eastern MN across WI and into Lower MI, with around 40 kt deep-layer shear. This may favor cellular storm mode capable of marginal hail or strong/damaging gusts. The activity will likely diminish by late evening as instability wanes. ..Smith.. 07/30/2021
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