Day 4-8 Outlook
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0330 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021 Valid 031200Z - 081200Z ...DISCUSSION... Severe storm potential is expected to remain relatively low from Tue/D4 through Thu/D6 across the CONUS due to a persistent upper trough east of the MS River. Rain and storms are expected during this period along the Gulf and Mid Atlantic Coasts along a slow-moving cold front, but significant convective overturning and lack of shear should minimize severe potential. As the upper trough and surface high shift northeastward roughly from Thu/D6 into Fri/D7, robust moisture return is possible across the Plains with 30+ kt southerly 850 mb winds forecast. Models indicate a shortwave trough may intercept the moistening air mass, moving east across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley from Fri/D7 into Sat/D8, with severe potential due to increasing lift and shear. Although an area of interest, predictability for this small-scale trough is too low to introduce severe probabilities.
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