Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0330 AM CDT Sat Jul 31 2021

Valid 031200Z - 081200Z

...DISCUSSION...
Severe storm potential is expected to remain relatively low from
Tue/D4 through Thu/D6 across the CONUS due to a persistent upper
trough east of the MS River. Rain and storms are expected during
this period along the Gulf and Mid Atlantic Coasts along a
slow-moving cold front, but significant convective overturning and
lack of shear should minimize severe potential.

As the upper trough and surface high shift northeastward roughly
from Thu/D6 into Fri/D7, robust moisture return is possible across
the Plains with 30+ kt southerly 850 mb winds forecast. Models
indicate a shortwave trough may intercept the moistening air mass,
moving east across the northern Plains and upper MS Valley from
Fri/D7 into Sat/D8, with severe potential due to increasing lift and
shear. Although an area of interest, predictability for this
small-scale trough is too low to introduce severe probabilities.

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