Day 4-8 Outlook

Day 4-8 Outlook Image

Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0320 AM CDT Tue Sep 14 2021

Valid 171200Z - 221200Z

An upper trough should move from central into eastern Canada on Day
4/Friday. The trailing portion of this trough may linger across
parts of the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes vicinity. Greater
low-level moisture should remain confined to the south of a front
stretching from the central Plains to the Great Lakes. Any
appreciable severe threat on Friday would likely be along/south of
the front. But, both instability and deep-layer shear appear rather
marginal for an organized severe risk. In addition, large-scale
ascent across the warm sector appears nebulous behind the upper
trough shifting eastward.

Medium-range guidance is beginning to come into agreement that
another large-scale upper trough should develop slowly eastward
across the western CONUS this upcoming weekend into early next week.
While low-level moisture is forecast to return northward across much
of the central CONUS in this time frame, there are still substantial
differences in the evolution of the upper trough and related surface
features. Potential for organized severe storms currently appears
fairly muted from Day 5/Saturday onward, but predictability also
remains rather low.

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